Poker Population Report 2026: What Regulars Actually Do at GG Poker NL10 to NL50

Measured action frequencies of the regular-player pool in heads-up single-raised and 3-bet pots, from 8,642,108 flops. Flop, turn and river, by bet size and board texture, with a comparison against GG Poker NL100 to NL200 and PokerStars NL10 to NL50.

The GG Poker NL10 to NL50 regular pool c-bets 58.2% of flops in single-raised pots and folds to that c-bet 41.9% of the time. It almost never leads into the aggressor (2.5% donk bets), it folds to a third barrel on the river 56.5% of the time, and against a 175% pot overbet the river fold rate climbs to 73.3%. Fold frequencies are nearly identical at NL100 to NL200 and on PokerStars; what changes between pools is how often they raise.

Published:
Data window:
Rolling two years, hands up to June 2026; trees generated August 2026
Pool:
Regular players (VPIP up to 34, VPIP minus PFR up to 9 points), 100 to 150 bb effective, heads-up to the flop
Sample:
6,889,103 single-raised and 1,753,005 3-bet flops at GG Poker NL10 to NL50; 17,834,323 flops across the three pools compared

Download the PDF

Key figures

58.2%
Flop c-bet frequency in single-raised pots
41.9%
Fold to the flop c-bet
56.5%
Fold to a third barrel on the river
73.3%
Fold to a 175% pot river overbet
2.5%
Donk bets into the aggressor on the flop
73%
Flop c-bet frequency in 3-bet pots

How the numbers were measured

Every figure is an action frequency observed directly in the hand histories, so it is not affected by showdown bias. A hand enters the sample when two regular players reach the flop heads-up in a single-raised pot (open raise and one call) or a 3-bet pot (3-bet and one call), with effective stacks between 100 and 150 big blinds. Multiway pots, limped pots and pots involving recreational players are excluded.

Bet sizes are normalized to a fraction of the pot (33%, 50%, 80%, 175%) and boards are grouped into nine texture classes. Turn and river cards are classified by whether they favour the aggressor, the defender or neither. Frequencies are aggregated across positions weighted by the number of observations; the per-spot table shows the raw values.

Percentages describe the pool, not any single player. A regular who deviates from these averages exists, but the exploit is built against the average because that is who you face over a session. The sample size is shown next to every table so the reader can judge the precision of each figure.

Twelve findings

1. The pool c-bets 58.2% of flops, and far more in position

Across 6,889,103 single-raised flops, the preflop aggressor bets 58.2% of the time. The split by position is large: 64% when the aggressor acts last (BTN, CO or EP against the blinds) and 47% when the aggressor is out of position (SB against BB, or CO and EP against the button). The small size dominates: a third of the pot is used on 35% of flops, half pot on 23.2%.

Exploit: When you defend the big blind against a button open, expect a bet nearly two thirds of the time and plan the check-raise and float ranges for a small size.

2. Fold to the c-bet is 41.9%, and the half-pot size buys 6.7 extra points

Facing a c-bet, the pool folds 41.9%, calls 50% and raises 8% (3,175,480 observations). Against a third-pot bet the fold rate is 39.3%; against half pot it is 46%. The larger size costs 50% more chips and buys 6.7 percentage points of folds.

Exploit: Bluff with the smaller size on boards where the fold rate is already high; reserve the half-pot bet for textures where the extra folds are worth the extra risk.

3. Texture moves the fold rate by 12 points

The fold-to-c-bet rate ranges from 47.9% on monotone flops and 46.3% on ace-high flops with two low cards to 35.9% on low connected boards. Paired boards sit at 44.4% and ace-high Broadway boards at 41.7%. The pool folds most where it is least likely to have connected and least where it holds pairs and draws.

Exploit: Air c-bets are most profitable on monotone, ace-rag and paired boards; on low connected boards the pool defends and raises, so bluff selectively.

4. Check-raises cluster on low boards

The flop check-raise rate against a c-bet is 13.1% on low connected boards and 11.4% on low unconnected boards, against 5.1% on ace-high Broadway boards. The aggressor also c-bets less on low connected boards (38.9% against 65.2% on ace-high Broadway).

Exploit: A check-raise on a low board comes from a range heavy in pairs and draws; on an ace-high board it is rare and stronger, so fold more against it.

2.5% donk bets

When the defender is first to act on the flop, it bets into the aggressor only 2.5% of the time over 4,596,950 opportunities. After calling the flop c-bet, it leads the turn 2.1% of the time. The defender waits for the aggressor to act on almost every board.

Exploit: A donk bet or a turn lead from a regular is an unusual action and carries information; treat it as a strong, polarized range rather than a standard line.

6. Half of the c-bets are followed by a turn barrel, and the size grows to 80%

After the flop c-bet is called, the aggressor bets the turn 49.1% of the time. The preferred size changes street to street: 80% of the pot on 32.2% of turns, half pot on 14.7%, and an overbet of 175% on 2%.

Exploit: Against a turn barrel expect the larger size as the default; a half-pot turn bet is the minority line and often caps the aggressor's range.

7. Fold to the turn barrel is 47.5%, rising with size

Facing a second barrel, the pool folds 47.5% (588,083 observations): 40.1% against half pot, 49.9% against 80% of the pot and 68.3% against a 175% overbet. Unlike the flop, on the turn the larger size does buy a materially higher fold rate.

Exploit: Turn bluffs work with the 80% size; the overbet is the most effective fold-equity tool on the turn and is used on only 2% of turns by the pool.

8. After a flop check-through, both players bet the turn around 40%

When the flop goes check-check, the aggressor makes a delayed c-bet on the turn 40.1% of the time, and the defender, when first to act, probes the turn 41.1% of the time. The initiative is not reclaimed automatically: the flop checker gives the defender a real chance to take the pot.

Exploit: When you are the defender and the aggressor checks back, a probe bet is a standard line the pool uses; when you are the aggressor, checking the flop does not commit you to giving up the turn.

9. The third barrel comes 47.2% of the time

After two bets have been called, the aggressor bets the river 47.2% of the time (247,385 observations), overwhelmingly at 80% of the pot (31.8% of rivers). The overbet is used on 3% of rivers.

Exploit: Triple barrels are polarized and sized large; the missing overbets are the clearest hole in the pool's river aggression.

10. Fold to the third barrel is 56.5%, and 73.3% against the overbet

Facing a river bet after calling flop and turn, the pool folds 56.5%, calls 39.8% and raises 3.7% (90,806 observations). By size: 49.7% against half pot, 57.9% against 80% of the pot and 73.3% against a 175% overbet. Half pot and 80% are eight points apart; the overbet adds fifteen more.

Exploit: Missed draws with no showdown value should barrel the river; the overbet is the highest fold-equity size and the pool uses it least.

11. In 3-bet pots the aggressor c-bets 73% and the pool folds only 35.9%

In 3-bet pots the 3-bettor c-bets 73% of flops. The defender folds 35.9% (1,085,014 observations): 31.8% against a third-pot bet and 42.5% against half pot. On the river, fold to a third barrel in 3-bet pots is 49.6%, seven points below single-raised pots.

Exploit: The small 3-bet pot c-bet is close to automatic and gets called; value bet thinner and bluff less on the flop, and expect calls on the river.

12. Fold rates barely change across pools; raise rates do

Fold to the flop c-bet is 41.9% at GG NL10 to NL50, 40.3% at GG NL100 to NL200 and 40.6% at PokerStars NL10 to NL50. Fold to the river triple barrel is 56.5%, 59.9% and 55.5%. The clearest difference is the flop raise: 8% at GG low stakes against 11.3% at GG NL100 to NL200, and donk bets disappear entirely at the higher stake.

Exploit: A strategy tuned to one pool transfers most of its fold-equity assumptions to a neighbouring pool; what needs re-tuning is the response to raises.

Response to a bet by size, single-raised pots

Flop c-bet, 33% of pot

Observations
1,921,734
Fold
39.3%
Call
51.9%
Raise
8.8%

Flop c-bet, 50% of pot

Observations
1,253,746
Fold
46%
Call
47.1%
Raise
6.9%

Turn barrel, 33% of pot

Observations
2,355
Fold
31.5%
Call
58%
Raise
10.5%

Turn barrel, 50% of pot

Observations
180,430
Fold
40.1%
Call
52%
Raise
7.9%

Turn barrel, 80% of pot

Observations
382,801
Fold
49.9%
Call
44.5%
Raise
5.6%

Turn barrel, 175% of pot

Observations
22,497
Fold
68.3%
Call
28%
Raise
3.8%

River third barrel, 33% of pot

Observations
1,675
Fold
34.6%
Call
56.2%
Raise
9.2%

River third barrel, 50% of pot

Observations
22,093
Fold
49.7%
Call
46.7%
Raise
3.6%

River third barrel, 80% of pot

Observations
61,099
Fold
57.9%
Call
38.2%
Raise
3.9%

River third barrel, 175% of pot

Observations
5,931
Fold
73.3%
Call
25.7%
Raise
1.1%

Flop c-bet and response by board texture, single-raised pots

Ace-high with a Broadway card

Observations
358,326
C-bet
65.2%
Fold
41.7%
Call
53.2%
Raise
5.1%

King or queen high with two low cards

Observations
561,785
C-bet
64.7%
Fold
42.4%
Call
49.7%
Raise
7.9%

Two Broadway cards

Observations
450,590
C-bet
61.1%
Fold
42.9%
Call
50.2%
Raise
6.9%

Jack or ten high with low cards

Observations
442,719
C-bet
56%
Fold
36.8%
Call
53.6%
Raise
9.5%

Ace-high with two low cards

Observations
284,919
C-bet
64.9%
Fold
46.3%
Call
46.8%
Raise
6.9%

Paired

Observations
599,704
C-bet
58.7%
Fold
44.4%
Call
47.4%
Raise
8.2%

Monotone

Observations
143,156
C-bet
49.3%
Fold
47.9%
Call
44.8%
Raise
7.3%

Low unconnected

Observations
234,900
C-bet
48.8%
Fold
36.2%
Call
52.4%
Raise
11.4%

Low connected

Observations
99,381
C-bet
38.9%
Fold
35.9%
Call
51%
Raise
13.1%

Flop c-bet and fold by position

BTN vs BB

Flops
1,618,295
Aggressor position
In position
C-bet
63.7%
Fold to c-bet
44.2%
Raise
8.7%

SB vs BB

Flops
1,472,099
Aggressor position
Out of position
C-bet
48.1%
Fold to c-bet
38.4%
Raise
8.2%

EP/MP vs BB

Flops
1,154,968
Aggressor position
In position
C-bet
64.8%
Fold to c-bet
44%
Raise
7.6%

CO vs BB

Flops
1,044,564
Aggressor position
In position
C-bet
64.6%
Fold to c-bet
44.1%
Raise
8.3%

EP/MP vs BTN

Flops
330,545
Aggressor position
Out of position
C-bet
45%
Fold to c-bet
37.3%
Raise
7.4%

BTN vs SB

Flops
285,309
Aggressor position
In position
C-bet
62.3%
Fold to c-bet
40%
Raise
7.1%

EP/MP vs SB

Flops
276,917
Aggressor position
In position
C-bet
63.4%
Fold to c-bet
40.1%
Raise
7%

CO vs BTN

Flops
255,882
Aggressor position
Out of position
C-bet
44.7%
Fold to c-bet
37.3%
Raise
7%

EP/MP vs CO

Flops
233,627
Aggressor position
Out of position
C-bet
45.6%
Fold to c-bet
36.2%
Raise
7%

CO vs SB

Flops
216,897
Aggressor position
In position
C-bet
63.3%
Fold to c-bet
40.7%
Raise
7%

3-bet pots, GG Poker NL10 to NL50

Flop c-bet frequency

Observations
1,721,962
Value
73%

Fold to flop c-bet

Observations
1,085,014
Value
35.9%

Fold to a third-pot c-bet

Observations
671,727
Value
31.8%

Fold to a half-pot c-bet

Observations
413,287
Value
42.5%

Turn barrel after c-bet called

Observations
599,705
Value
51.1%

Fold to turn barrel

Observations
248,529
Value
49%

River third barrel

Observations
98,874
Value
53.8%

Fold to river third barrel

Observations
45,902
Value
49.6%

Three pools compared, single-raised pots

Three pools compared, single-raised pots
PoolFlopsC-betFold to c-betRaise vs c-betDonkTurn barrelFold to turn barrelRiver third barrelFold to third barrelFold to 175% river overbet
GG Poker NL10 to NL506,889,10358.2%41.9%8%2.5%49.1%47.5%47.2%56.5%73.3%
GG Poker NL100 to NL2004,570,66360.2%40.3%11.3%0%46.1%52%51%59.9%71.9%
PokerStars NL10 to NL504,621,55262%40.6%9.3%0.8%50.1%46.5%48.8%55.5%67.2%

Frequently asked questions

Is this data from GTOkiller's own users?
No. The report is built from aggregated hand histories of the GG Poker pool, filtered to regular players, the same population model that GTOkiller's solver uses as its opponent. No user data is involved.
Why regulars only?
Regulars are the opponents a serious player faces most of the hands, and their tendencies are stable enough to be exploited. Recreational players deviate more, but in ways that vary from player to player; the pool model for them is published separately.
Are these frequencies affected by showdown bias?
No. Every figure in this report is an action frequency: how often the pool bet, called, raised or folded. Those are observed in every hand whether or not cards are shown. Showdown bias only affects the reconstruction of ranges, which is covered in the methodology post.
How does GTOkiller use these numbers?
They are the opponent model. The solver carries the pool's real frequency in every node of a 500,000-node tree and computes the strategy that maximizes EV against it, showing the exploit next to the GTO line. The report is a summary of that model; the solver is the full tree.
Will the report be updated?
Yes. The population model is fully reprocessed every six months, and the report is republished with each reprocessing. The version and the data window are shown at the top of the page and in the PDF.

Cite this report

Advanced Poker Research (GTOkiller). Poker Population Report 2026: GG Poker NL10 to NL50 regulars. September 2026. https://gtokiller.com/population-report/gg-nl10-50/

Download the PDF · How we correct showdown bias and the sample sizes we use

Try the exploitative solver for free

One board per day with the full decision tree, the three strategies and the AI Coach. No card required.

Start freeSee plans and prices